We have had a rather interesting trading week. Let's recap together the highlights of our focus.
The core inflation rate in the euro area fell to 2.8 % in January. Similarly, we could see a slight reduction in core CPI to 3.3 %. Nothing surprising, all as estimated. It will be some way to go for the ECB to get core inflation into the target range. Negative for the EUR.
Furthermore, according to preliminary estimates, we could observe a slight decrease in the manufacturing sector (PMI) to 46.1 points. Industrial production has declined for the 11th month in a row, which is not good. The positive news was services, which rose to 50 points. This represents an expansion in the sector and is the highest reading in 7 months.
Other currencies we had in our sights: USD, CAD, NZD...
Monday 26 February: scheduled speeches by the Bank of England and ECB President Christine Lagarde
Tuesday 27 February: inflation rate in Japan
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The new Monday summary is out! Let's recap what happened last week.
On Tuesday, we focused on UK labour market data, which was positive for the pound. The unemployment rate fell in Q3 2023 to its lowest rate since the period between November 2022 and January 2023.
The US Dollar was volatile last week as it got quite a bit of data from the US that we turned our attention to.
First we got the inflation rate, which fell to 3.1 % year-on-year.
The annual inflation rate in Switzerland slowed to 1.3 in January. This is the lowest since October 2021.
The big surprise was domestic inflation in the Czech Republic, which fell sharply to 2.3 %. This was still below market estimates, which had expected a reduction from 6.9 % to 2.9 %.
This week will be a bit weaker, but we will still get some interesting data coming in the middle of the week.
Monday, February 19: Canada and USA holiday
Tuesday, February 20: RBA meeting minutes, Canada - CPI, New Zealand - PPI. On Tuesday, we'll focus on the Canadian inflation rate, which comes in at 14:30.
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Monday's recap is out! Join us as we recap the highlights of what happened over the past week.
Last week, we received mostly PMI and retail sales data from the euro area, which turned out to be negative for the euro.
Compared to the worse Eurozone PMIs, we saw better data from the UK, which was positive for the Pound.
On Thursday we turned our attention to the traditional new US unemployment claims, which were very surprising and positive for the USD. The number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits fell to 218k.
A Canadian rode the wave of more positive news from the US labour market at the end of the week. The unemployment rate dropped from 22 months in January. highs to 5.7 %. This beat market expectations and the result eased concerns that high interest rates were slowing the Canadian economy.
The Czech koruna lost ground during the week. The unemployment rate in the Czech Republic rose to 4 %. This is the highest since April 2021 and above the market estimate.
The new trading week will start slowly as Japan has a holiday on Monday. More interesting data will come on Tuesday, where we will focus on the UK labour market (8:00) and Swiss inflation (8:30). In the afternoon, we will turn our attention to the current inflation rate in the US (14:30).
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Monday's recap is out! Join us as we recap the highlights of the fundamentals that influenced the markets over the past week.
The euro was under pressure on Monday and Tuesday due to speeches by a couple of ECB politicians. According to Nagel, inflation is heading in the right direction, that was a pretty dovish comment from a hawk.
At the first monetary policy meeting of the year, the Bank of England is estimated to have left its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25 % (for the fourth consecutive time). The pound (GBP) strengthened.
The most important fundamental awaited us on Wednesday evening. The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.5 %, as the market expected.
On Wednesday morning we got the latest Australian inflation data which was negative for AUD. The core annual inflation rate came in at 4.1 %, which was still below market expectations.
An interview with Jerome Poewell (FED) will be aired at 1am on Monday first thing in the morning to discuss inflation risks and the economy. After last week's meeting, we probably won't get any surprises. Anyway, America responded with military action to the 3 US soldiers killed this week. So the risks to the markets remain elevated.
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Monday's recap is here! We have a couple of central bank meetings this week. Let's hope something comes of it. Have a great Monday, everyone!
We started the week with a speech by Robert Holzmann (ECB), from which we could understand that monetary policymakers should probably not discuss any early rate cuts just yet.
On Tuesday, we got fairly strong data from the UK labour market, on which the pound strengthened. The unemployment rate remained steady at an estimated 4, 2 %.
The US Dollar received fairly positive data last week, which reinforces our belief that the USD has been stronger and increasingly interesting since the new year.
On Tuesday, we also received data from Canada. The annual core inflation rate fell to 2.6 %, but the core annual rate rose to 3.4 %, as expected.
The Australian has had a tough week. The inflation rate was 3.9 %, which was in line with market forecasts and was no change.
To make matters worse, we also focused on inflation from Japan, which came out lower and negative for the JPY.
The week starts with Tuesday's Bank of Japan meeting, which is not expected to bring any change in rates. However, it could offer some signal of its willingness to normalise rates in the spring. That could move the JPY quite a bit.
Monday's recap is here! Join us as we recap the highlights of what happened last week!
Last week, we focused mostly on Tuesday's unemployment rate from the eurozone, which was positive for the euro.
We got a bit more interesting data from the US. Thursday's inflation was positive for the USD as the core inflation rate rose to 3.4 %.
Tuesday's Tokyo inflation data was negative for the JPY. Tokyo's core CPI index declined to 2.4 % in December.
We are in for a week of inflation. On Tuesday, we turn our attention to the inflation rate in Canada, which is expected to rise slightly. On Wednesday morning, we will see inflation data from the UK, where we are again expected to see lower numbers.
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The first Monday recap of the new year is here! Join us as we recap what moved the markets over the past week. We wish you a successful start to trading in the New Year 2024!
On Friday, we focused on the preliminary inflation data from the euro area, which turned out to be mostly positive for the euro. The core inflation rate rose to 2.9 % year-on-year in December
The US dollar had a volatile week, helped by the labour market reports. Thursday's jobless claims fell to 202k.
Canada's unemployment rate remained unchanged in December, but at a 22-month high.
This week will be a bit more relaxed, but we will still have some interesting data.
Tuesday (00:30) sees the release of data on the Tokyo inflation rate, where a slight reduction is expected. Later in the morning (7:45), data from the Swiss labour market will be released, where a slight increase in the unemployment rate is expected.
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The week has gone by like water and we have a new Monday recap for you, packed with fundamentals from last week!
The European Central Bank (ECB) met on Thursday and is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged. The interest rate is at multi-year highs.
We also got a similar scenario at the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, which left the base rate unchanged.
The most important fundamental that we focused our attention on was Wednesday's Fed meeting. The Fed left rates unchanged, as planned, at 5.5 %.
Apart from interest rates, on Thursday we also watched data from the Australian labour market, which turned out to be positive for AUD.
Last Thursday's meeting was held by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which also left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.75 %.
This week will be mostly about inflation.
The week starts with the Bank of Japan meeting on Tuesday (4:00), where no change is expected. Let's see if we get any clues on the planned changes in the FX market.
Later at 11:00 we will turn our attention to the current inflation rate in the euro area and at 14:30 in Canada.
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The regular Monday recap is here! Together, let's recap the highlights of the past week.
On Wednesday, we watched incoming data on GDP and retail sales in the euro area. Retail sales fell by 1.2 % yoy in October. This is the third straight month of decline.
The news from the US labour market was the most important fundamental on which we focused our attention. Unemployment claims rose again to 220k. It was the second highest reading since September and negative for the USD.
From Japan, we saw some surprising news last week that added quite significant volatility to the JPY market. On Thursday, the BOJ Governor visited Prime Minister Kishida's office where he was due to confirm his outlook for wage increases next year.
This week will be quite nutritious.
On Tuesday, we have UK labour market data (8:00) followed by US inflation figures in the afternoon (14:30). This will certainly be the market's focus in conjunction with last week's labour market developments.
With the Fed's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday (20:00), Tuesday's inflation data will be all the more important.
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The regular Monday recap is out! Let's take a look together at what news moved the market last week, and what we'll focus on in the current one.
On Thursday, we were expecting quite important data on inflation in the euro area and the labour market. The core inflation rate fell to 2.4 % in November. This marked the lowest reading since July 2021 and was below estimates.
On Wednesday we got some GDP data that was positive for the USD. The US economy grew by 5.2 % in Q3.
The Canadian hasn't had a great week. Thursday's Q3 GDP fell by 0.3 %.
An important fundamental we watched was Wednesday's meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The NZD strengthened in response to the meeting.
At the end of the week, we still got data from the Japanese labour market, which turned out positive. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 2.5 %.
On Tuesday, we will wait for the incoming Tokyo inflation data (00:30). And later at 4:30 will come the RBA meeting where the base rate is expected to remain steady at 4.35 %.
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Polish