Last week was relatively quiet. We focused mostly on Japan. Join us in recapping last week to keep you in the loop!
Thursday's jobless claims fell to 207,000. This was below market estimates, which had expected an increase to 214 thousand. At the moment, claims are at their lowest level in two months. This indicates a solid labor market and increases the room for the Fed to delay cutting interest rates.
Monday: German inflation rate (EUR)
Tuesday: unemployment rate and retail sales in Japan (JPY), Australian retail sales (AUD), inflation rate in France (EUR), German labour market (EUR), preliminary inflation rate and hdp in the Eurozone (EUR), Canadian hdp
This week we have a bit more to come. Most of our attention will be on the Fed meeting, which is expected to leave rates unchanged. So the focus will be on the press conference. The end of the week will bring data from the US labour market (NFP, unemployment rate).
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Monday's recap is here! Last week was marked by inflation. Join us in recapping what we've been watching to keep you in the loop.
On Tuesday, we also saw inflation from Canada, which was rather negative for the Canadian dollar. The core inflation rate rose to 2.9 % year-on-year. Core inflation, on the other hand, slowed to 2 % in March, the lowest level since 3/2021. Overall, the data should give the central bank more confidence to start cutting rates.
Tuesday: PMI index in Australia, Japan, Eurozone, UK, and US
Wednesday: australian inflation rate (AUD) and canadian retail sales (CAD)
Thursday: UK GDP (GBP), US jobless claims (USD)
Friday: tokyo inflation rate and Bank of Japan (JPY) monetary policy meeting
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The last trading week was more in the interest rate area. At the end of the week, we also saw an escalation of the Iran-Israel war. Join us in recapping it all together to get you ready for the new trading week.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also left rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected. The committee said rates will have to remain at higher levels for longer. Inflation expectations remain elevated. The central bank did not deliver any new surprises, but the NZD strengthened on the formulation that rates should remain higher for longer.
Monday: Swiss PPI (CHF), US retail sales (USD)
Tuesday: UK unemployment rate (GBP), Canadian inflation rate (CAD), Fed President J. Powell's speech (USD)
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Monday's recap of last week is here! Join us as we recap what we've been focusing on and what the current trading week has in store for us.
We received a number of data from Japan at the end of the week. Retail sales rose 4.6 % y/y, an acceleration from January's increase. Tokyo inflation was unchanged y/y at 2.6 % and we saw a small slowdown in the core reading. However, inflation is still above the Bank of Japan's target. The unemployment rate hit its highest level since September 2023. It's very much a combination for the JPY. The market is likely to focus more on inflation. Recently, we have seen mentions of intervention. That said, we will be very wary of any commentary that could move the JPY.
Monday: ISM PMI (USD), PMI (CAD)
Tuesday: PMI (AUD), RBA minutes (AUD), retail sales (CHF), German inflation rate (EUR), PMI (GBP)
Wednesday: Preliminary Eurozone inflation rate (EUR), ADP employment change (USD), PMI (USD), Powell's Fed speech (USD)
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The whole of last week was mostly about monetary policy meetings of central banks, where we got some surprising information. Come along with us for a recap of the highlights to get you up to speed for the new trading week!
Wednesday's UK inflation rate also showed a decline. The core inflation rate fell to 3.4 % year-on-year in February, taking it to its lowest level since 9/2021. Core inflation fell to 4.5 %, taking it to its lowest level since 1/2022. This is negative news for the pound.
However, we focused more attention on Thursday's meeting of the Bank of England, which is estimated to have left rates unchanged at 5.25 %. One policymaker voted for a 25bp rate cut. BoE Governor Bailey said conditions were favourable for the central bank to start cutting interest rates. So here we could see a dovish stance and it is negative for the pound. Add to that falling inflation and the pound has not had a good week.
Tuesday: GDP - Spain (EUR)
Wednesday: inflation - Spain (EUR)
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The recap of the week is here! Join us in recapping the highlights of the past week. This week will be packed with fundamentals, so stay tuned!
Within the euro area, data came to us during the week mainly on inflation. The core inflation rate in Germany fell to 2.5 % in February, in line with estimates. This was the lowest reading since June 2021 and close to the ECB's target. The inflation rate in Spain fell to its lowest level in six months (2.8 %). Core inflation also fell slightly year-on-year to 3.5 %. Broadly unchanged from estimates. The inflation rate in France fell to 3 % in February. This was the lowest reading since 1/2022. On a month-over-month basis, however, we could see an increase of 0.8 %. This is the fastest growth since 8/2023.
In terms of retail trade, the Spanish retail sector declined to 0.3 % in January 2024, a deterioration compared to the previous period. Although this was the fourteenth consecutive month of growth, it was the weakest in the series.
Overall, this is negative news for the EUR, except for the month-on-month inflation in France, which is a bit of a thorn in the side.
Monday: Euro area inflation rate (EUR)
Tuesday: BOJ meeting (JPY), RBA meeting (AUD), inflation in Canada (CAD)
This week will be mostly about monetary policy meetings of central banks. There are 6 meetings on the agenda. Tuesday's Bank of Japan is expected to finally end its negative rate policy and raise rates by 10bp.
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We are currently planning to enhance our market analyses with additional interesting features. We will keep you informed, there is a lot to look forward to!
Another Monday recap is here! Join us as we recap what impacted the markets last week to keep you in the loop!
The end of the week was interesting for us mainly thanks to the data from the US labour market, on which the USD weakened. The US economy created 275,000 new jobs in February, which beat market estimates. However, as far as the unemployment rate is concerned, it was not that good. In fact, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 % in February, reaching the highest level since January 2022.
At first glance, the numbers seemed good, but the details were not so good. The market focused on the unemployment rate and the USD weakened.
Tuesday: PPI in Japan, UK labour market, US inflation
Wednesday: UK GDP
Thursday: Swiss PPI, Spanish inflation
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Welcome to the first Fundamental Summary in March. Join us as we recap the most important events that impacted the markets at the turn of the month. Stay in the loop!
During the week, we received mostly inflation data from the euro area. France's annual inflation rate slowed to 2.9 % in February, the lowest since January 2022. Germany's inflation also posted a decline from 2.9 % to 2.5 in February, the lowest inflation rate since June 2021. Inflation also fell in Spain, where it slowed to 2.8 %.
For the euro area as a whole, the annual core inflation rate fell to 3.1 %, slightly above market estimates but still the lowest since March 2022. The core inflation rate fell to 2.6 %.
Overall, the data are lower, and this is reassuring for the European Central Bank (ECB). Nothing should change in terms of the June rate cut. Negative for the euro.
At the end of the week, we focused on the unemployment rate, which, unlike inflation, was positive. The unemployment rate fell to 6.4 %, the lowest on record. This tells us that labour market conditions are holding up well. Positive for the euro.
Looks like we're in for quite a busy week. Monday's Swiss inflation rate should give us more clarity towards a March rate cut, where there is currently about a 50% chance.
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We have had a rather interesting trading week. Let's recap together the highlights of our focus.
The core inflation rate in the euro area fell to 2.8 % in January. Similarly, we could see a slight reduction in core CPI to 3.3 %. Nothing surprising, all as estimated. It will be some way to go for the ECB to get core inflation into the target range. Negative for the EUR.
Furthermore, according to preliminary estimates, we could observe a slight decrease in the manufacturing sector (PMI) to 46.1 points. Industrial production has declined for the 11th month in a row, which is not good. The positive news was services, which rose to 50 points. This represents an expansion in the sector and is the highest reading in 7 months.
Other currencies we had in our sights: USD, CAD, NZD...
Monday 26 February: scheduled speeches by the Bank of England and ECB President Christine Lagarde
Tuesday 27 February: inflation rate in Japan
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The new Monday summary is out! Let's recap what happened last week.
On Tuesday, we focused on UK labour market data, which was positive for the pound. The unemployment rate fell in Q3 2023 to its lowest rate since the period between November 2022 and January 2023.
The US Dollar was volatile last week as it got quite a bit of data from the US that we turned our attention to.
First we got the inflation rate, which fell to 3.1 % year-on-year.
The annual inflation rate in Switzerland slowed to 1.3 in January. This is the lowest since October 2021.
The big surprise was domestic inflation in the Czech Republic, which fell sharply to 2.3 %. This was still below market estimates, which had expected a reduction from 6.9 % to 2.9 %.
This week will be a bit weaker, but we will still get some interesting data coming in the middle of the week.
Monday, February 19: Canada and USA holiday
Tuesday, February 20: RBA meeting minutes, Canada - CPI, New Zealand - PPI. On Tuesday, we'll focus on the Canadian inflation rate, which comes in at 14:30.
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English 
Czech 
Polish