We bring you another Monday recap of the most interesting economic events we watched during the last trading week!
Escalating military tensions on Ukraine's borders, which prompted a meeting of European Union leaders. This was also a very nutritious topic last week.
Read on to keep up to date!
EUR
The start of the week was slow for the European currency. In her speech on Monday, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) - Christine Lagarde mentioned that inflation is likely to remain high in the near future and risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside.
A day later, GDP data from the euro area came in and remained unchanged at 4.6%.
Two Unions, a common vision
The most watched event took place at the end of the week, when the leaders of the European and African Union met for the sixth summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday.
The meeting was attended by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the President of the African Union, Macky Sall, who agreed on a common vision for a renewed partnership. The Partnership aims to promote common priorities and shared values such as solidarity and sustainable peace and economic development.
You can read the full statement here:
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/54412/final_declaration-en.pdf
Before the summit, however, EU leaders had to attend an informal meeting to discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine crisis in the wake of Russia's increasing military presence on its border with Ukraine.
Charles Michel noted that the unwavering unity of the European Union and its NATO partners is a commitment to diplomacy. And to defend our values as well.
The situation continues to be monitored. This summit was an opportunity to show EU unity to safeguard peace and stability.
More information can be found here:
USD
On the whole, the US dollar had a colourful week for economic data. At the beginning of the week, the current value of the PPI (Producer Price Index) was published, which is the main indicator of consumer price inflation and accounts for the majority of headline inflation (current 1.0%, previous 0.4%).
Later that day, US President Joe Biden spoke about the current situation in Ukraine. Joe Biden sees that a Russian attack is still very likely. He also mentioned that the US and allies are ready to impose strong sanctions on Russia if it attacks.
Mid-week we saw US retail sales data, which was bullish for the US currency (current 3.8%, previous -2.5%).
Then on Wednesday evening, the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were released. After its release, the US dollar softened and there is no indication yet that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points.
The full minutes can be found here:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220126.pdf
Worldwide
The eyes of the world have been watching the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine for the past 14 days.
At the moment, it is really hard to predict what direction the situation will take, because every day the media publishes different reports.
It is clear from US President Joe Biden's speeches that the West, with the help of its allies, will be watching this situation closely and are ready to address it. The US has previously threatened Russia with sanctions for cyber attacks.
A continuing moment for the golden bulls
At the moment, it is difficult to discern whether inflation or the Russia-Ukraine story is to blame for the moves in gold.
In Ukraine, gold is always being auctioned because of geopolitical concerns, but Russia has huge gold reserves, and if sanctioned, they could be sold to prop up the ruble. There are therefore bilateral risks around the conflict.
With the tide turning against Russian military action in Ukraine, it is becoming increasingly clear that the bids in commodities are less about geopolitical risk and more about underlying demand, along with uncertainty about central bank policy.
However, it is evident that over the past few weeks, since the whole world has turned its eyes on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, gold has been fulfilling its role as a calm harbour and experiencing a bullish period.
What's in store for the current trading week?
Apart from the fact that the whole world will still be watching how the situation in Ukraine develops, the next trading week will also bring a number of interesting economic events to follow.
On Wednesday, important data will come from New Zealand regarding the interest rate change, and this will bring with it adequate volatility on the New Zealand dollar. The second half of the week will bring a number of data from the US regarding US GDP.
Sources
